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A persistent, monstrous lie, held as religious dogma

Patrick Graham

A persistent, monstrous lie, held as religious dogma.

What is going on with sex crime reporting that still fools so very many people, and confuses others including The UK's most famous statistician?
Because the facts prove that of all reports of rape to the police, there are more that are false than genuine.

This is a fact that Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter now accepts – so I would strongly suggest that anyone declaring it to be nonsense is probably illiterate, blind or blinkered.

This article presents a cry for a bigger echo, concerning the (nearest we can ever get to) proof of the mythical nature of the idea of 98% women's innocent victimhood when it comes to rape accusations.
I must first make clear that I am dealing purely with rape figures - to avoid grey areas regarding sexual assaults and how they are recorded.
Rape figures are far clearer and less arguable, I will leave the oft repeated and deliberate muddying of the waters with sexual assault figures to the Feemenist* industry...

The idea that only 2% of rape accusations are false and therefore they should not be taken seriously is taken from Susan Brownmiller's fantasy in a piece she wrote in 1988... She plucked it from the air in order to sound more credible than if she had said what other Feminists of that time often wildly claimed – that NO women ever lied about rape.  It was a barefaced lie based on zero research, but it is a lie that is now embedded throughout our society.

A long time ago, Keir Starmer, as Director of Public Prosecutions, ordered a piece of research into the false accusation total figure, using lawyers and justice department figures, and when they came back with a figure of 12% he buried the report in order not to upset the victim industry narrative.  Little did he realise how that buried percentage figure would, in reality, multily by a magnitude of five over the following  decade.

The reaction to my presenting facts about false rape accusations in any public arena has generally been an angry shouting down, or occasionally, a bemused ignorance of how such facts could be... some men, claiming to be knowledgable statisticians, have reacted instantly with a rubbishing of what I am telling you here, but always by citing alternative figures that  are not comparable with the much simpler National Office of Statistics published rape studies I present. They cling to those established victim industry ideas like cultists to a creed.

This is somewhat understandable in the UK climate that surrounds the victim industry. Witch hunting “RAPISTS & PAEDOS!” is a game the whole world likes to feel comfortable playing.
One could debate the issues of how our culture has decided that men are dangerous sex predators (Yes, all men) and women are only ever victims...and cite counter arguments, made by both women and men, but all these debates are perpetually defeated by the sheer power of the witch hunt and the thrice weekly propaganda in the media that reinforces this set of beliefs.
The facts that the Guardian editorship constantly manipulate or hide, (whilst still claiming that facts are sacred) are what matter – and when it comes to rape figures there is only one sensible route to take to lay down what we can describe as facts...

As well as associated issues and other crimes, for over 35 years the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) has conducted an annual survey on the issue of rape.
It is backed by the National Office of Statistics (NOS) and is demonstrably more reliable than any other research source of UK crime statistics, with a very large sample size. That means the NOS can confidently assert that it is accurate within a margin of error of 1.5%.
For those unfamiliar with statistical method you might like to think about how the polling industry predicts election outcomes and what margins for error they achieve – generally they are within 2.5% but they are dealing with smaller samples and much less robust methodology.
With the CSEW we have a methodology developed over decades, that is based on real anonymity, and questionnaire plus face to face interviews with tens of thousands of women across 40 police force areas. From this sample the figures are extrapolated to give a very accurate national picture. 

It is from this survey that we have the figures regarding how many women are raped each year – and this number is reasonably consistent – the variation for England Scotland and Wales has ranged from 80,000 to 100,000 in the past 3 decades but methodology has changed slightly so we have to choose a number that is generous to the statistical method and industry bias, in order to avoid argument, so let's take  the high and round, 100,000 – (From the publicity you'd think this figure has risen dramatically since 2008  but no, it hasn't).

Rape Crisis and Women's Aid have been just two of the many organisations quoting the CSEW figures because they know that the vast majority of women who are raped do not go to the police – and this has been a political point of their outrage for decades.
They have argued and prompted dubious changes in policy regarding the reasons that rape victims are reluctant to go to the police but the point here is they do know the % figure.

The CSEW not only gathers the numbers of women who say they have been raped, it also records the number of those women reporting that rape to the police. A recent high of 15% has been recorded (it was as low as 6% in the 1990s).
The extrapolation from the survey shows that – in the latest published year 2020 – allowing a rounding up based on the NOS stated margin for error, the maximum number of UK rape victims reporting that rape to the police in said year...
was 15,000.

and yet, the police figure for rapes reported to them and recorded as such in that same year is 63,000

The police do make a point that some* of these recorded reports are not actually investigated as serious crimes – but they are recorded nevertheless.
* For example there was the woman who recounted how she had been raped by the entire French Rugby Union team – despite them being in a different country at the time.
And another claim that a rape was actually perpetrated by an alien whose space ship was the location... but fewer than 400 reports fall into this dismissed with ease category.
With the elimination of those as belonging in the mad fantasist group we still have  62,600 serious rape reports in 2020.

Can no Feminist seeking equality, empowerment and justice for all, see the problem here?
Take away the CSEW maximum possible figure of rape victims who reported that crime to the police,(15,000), from the number of serious rape reports to the police (62,600) and we get a figure of 47,600

That's 47,600 reports of rape that must be lies.
There is no additional margin for error, nor “different types of lying”, that can diminish that figure down towards the 2% dogma, nor the 12% from the DPP's buried research, we cannot even get below 50%. 
It is 70% even when allowing generously for statistical error. (it could just as well be 73%).
Just because this seems beyond belief to all those indoctrinated into the dogma that only 2% of women lie – it does not mean that we can simply “go against” the survey facts. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter agreed that this presented a problem – and that it might be career ending for him to try and go public with these already publicly available facts.

The National Office of Statistics has put out these figures confident that they are at least as reliable as any exit poll taken in any general election, so why all the fear, hesitation and doubt, even amongst allies of the truth?
Those exit polls have been proven accurate to within 2% in every election in 50 years.
We don't doubt them because we can see the results in counted votes and elected MPs.

Why then do we doubt the NOS statistics related to rape victims versus women who make up stories about rape, that end up wrecking tens of thousands of innocent lives, with 1100 (minimum) currently in prison for sex crimes that never happened?

Why have Rape Crisis and Women's Aid, who used to publish the CSEW rape figures on their advertising and annual reports, so recently stopped doing so?
And why do the NOS not give out these publicly available figures in a readable format?
(They have to be dug from their highly specialised tables). The collective blind eye to this telescope is closer to a true conspiracy than any YouTube fantasist's notions. 

The tens of thousands of families, with their innocent husbands, father and brothers, in prison, lives wrecked, careers gone, homes and children taken, - and lives lost to illness and suicide - feel these facts personally, as knives to their hearts,
but the massed witch hunt supporting public keeps swallowing the anti-equality Victim industry blue pill that has convinced them that rape is all around and no woman ever lies about it.
Actual rape victims don't lie about being raped. But 40,000 women a year who haven't been, now do. 

~ P.Graham 2022

*Feemenist = modern day person who has adopted the bending of the original equality and responsibility meanings of “Feminist” so that it has now become a tool with which to make men pay a fee for a historic fact but current fiction.


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